Hook Value Calculator

Understanding Hook Value

In sports betting, the "hook" is the half-point added to spreads (e.g., -3.5 instead of -3). The hook eliminates pushes but has different value depending on the base number.

NFL Key Numbers

In the NFL, certain margins of victory occur far more frequently due to scoring increments:

• 3 — Field goal margin (~15.5% of games)
• 7 — One touchdown margin (~9.5% of games)
• 10 — TD + FG margin (~6.2% of games)
• 14 — Two touchdown margin (~5.5% of games)

When to Buy Points

Most books charge -10 (10 cents) per half point. This means you need the hook to be worth at least 5% to break even. In the NFL:

• Moving OFF 3 or 7 (e.g., -3.5 to -3 or +2.5 to +3) is often worth it
• Moving THROUGH 3 or 7 is almost always worth it
• Buying off non-key numbers is rarely profitable

NBA Hook Value

NBA margins are more evenly distributed with no true key numbers. Each margin from 1-14 occurs about 2.5-3.5% of the time, making hooks worth roughly 1.5% — rarely worth the cost.