NumberEdgeSPORTS
Tools/EV Calculator

Expected Value Calculator

Determine if a bet has positive expected value (+EV) based on your estimated probability.

Expected Value
+5.00
+5.00% per dollar
Market Implied
52.4%
Edge
2.6%
Kelly Criterion
5.5%
of bankroll
✅
Positive Expected Value (+EV)
At 55% true probability, this bet returns $5.00 per $100 wagered on average.

What is Expected Value in Betting?

Expected Value (EV) measures the average amount you expect to win or lose per bet over time. A positive EV (+EV) bet means you expect to profit in the long run. The formula is: EV = (Win Probability × Profit if Win) - (Loss Probability × Amount Lost). Professional bettors focus exclusively on +EV opportunities, which requires having more accurate probability estimates than the sportsbook's implied odds.

Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion calculates the optimal bet size as a percentage of your bankroll. The formula is: Kelly% = (bp - q) / b, where b is the decimal odds minus 1, p is your estimated win probability, and q is the loss probability. Many sharp bettors use "fractional Kelly" (25-50% of Kelly) to reduce variance.

Free betting tools and analysis in your inbox

Join sharp bettors getting model-based predictions and edge alerts.

More Free Tools

Odds Converter
Convert between American, Decimal, and Fractional odds.
Parlay Calculator
Combined odds and payouts for multi-leg bets.
Hold Calculator
Calculate sportsbook vig on any market.
Model Picks
Today's Predictions
Free Previews
Matchup Analysis

Get Model Probabilities Automatically

NumberEdge runs thousands of simulations per game to generate true probabilities across every sport.

Get Access