Bankroll Simulator

Understanding Bankroll Variance

Even with a winning edge, short-term results can vary wildly. This simulator shows how variance affects your bankroll and helps you understand the importance of proper bankroll management.

Key Metrics Explained

• Bust Rate: Percentage of scenarios where you go broke
• Profit Rate: Percentage of scenarios ending with more than starting bankroll
• Median Final: The "typical" outcome (50th percentile) — often lower than average due to bust scenarios

Bankroll Management Rules

• 1-2% per bet: Conservative, low risk of ruin
• 2-5% per bet: Moderate risk, faster growth potential
• 5%+ per bet: Aggressive, high risk of ruin even with edge

Why Variance Matters

A 55% win rate at -110 odds is a 2% edge. But in 100 bets, you might win anywhere from 40 to 70 with roughly equal probability. This is why:

• You can't evaluate a bettor on small samples
• Proper bankroll sizing prevents going broke during downswings
• Long-term results converge to expected value